Sweden’s parliamentary election has entered its final days with the governing right-wing bloc narrowing the gap with the centre-left opposition, while a crucial recovery by the Liberal Party
has strengthened the government’s prospects of retaining power.
A new Novus opinion poll published by broadcaster TV4 on Monday put the four centre-left parties on a combined 50.3%, compared with 47.9% for the three-party governing bloc and its parliamentary ally, the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats.
The result suggests the election, once viewed as likely to produce a clear opposition victory, could be considerably closer than earlier surveys indicated.
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s government, which took office in 2022, has spent the final stretch of the campaign reducing what had previously been a substantial disadvantage to the opposition led by Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson.
The latest figures show the gap between the two political blocs has narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared with Novus’ previous survey.
Liberals cross the parliamentary threshold
The most significant movement in the latest poll came from the Liberals, a junior member of the governing coalition.
The party rose to 4.3% support from 3.3%, taking it above Sweden’s 4% threshold for representation in parliament. The improvement could prove critical for the governing bloc, which had faced the prospect of losing the Liberals’ 16 seats and potentially its parliamentary majority.
The party’s position has been closely watched during the campaign because falling below the threshold could have significantly altered the balance of power after Sunday’s vote.
The recovery also gives Kristersson’s coalition a stronger chance of remaining competitive in the final days of campaigning.
Opposition lead has shrunk
The latest figures mark a sharp change from polling earlier in the campaign.
Three weeks ago, another poll gave the centre-left a 10-point advantage. At the time, political scientists described the lead as extremely difficult for the governing parties to overcome before election day.
Since then, however, the contest has tightened considerably, leaving both sides facing a potentially decisive final week.
The election will determine whether Kristersson remains prime minister or whether Andersson and the centre-left can return to government.
Novus conducted its latest survey among 2,888 voters between September 1 and September 5, just days before voters head to the polls.
With the Liberals now back above the parliamentary threshold and the gap between the two blocs narrowing, the final outcome may depend on a relatively small number of voters in a contest that had appeared far less competitive only weeks ago.
