The UK government is using actuarial analysis and financial risk assessment to support a new package of reforms intended to strengthen the country’s position in the global space industry.
The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) has worked with the UK Space Agency (UKSA) to examine the potential risks, costs and financial consequences of regulatory changes accompanying the government’s new UK Space Strategy.
The strategy envisages billions of pounds of investment in the UK space sector, with the government seeking to stimulate economic growth, strengthen national security and encourage the development of technologies increasingly important to everyday life.
Focus on priority space technologies
The UK Space Strategy sets out plans to expand national capabilities across seven areas of the space economy. Four have been identified as priorities where faster development is being targeted: satellite communications, in-orbit servicing, assembly and manufacturing (ISAM), space domain awareness, and assured access to space.
The reforms are intended to create a regulatory environment that gives companies greater flexibility to develop new technologies while maintaining appropriate safeguards for government, taxpayers and other stakeholders.
Assessing costs and risks
GAD specialists supported UKSA by modelling potential financial exposures and assessing how the proposed regulatory changes could affect both space operators and the public finances.
Their analysis contributed to reforms developed following the government’s consultation on orbital liabilities, insurance, charging arrangements and space sustainability. The measures announced include several significant changes to the way space activities are regulated.
Among them is a new variable liability regime for orbital operations, described by the government as a world first. The reforms will also remove operator liability for certain innovative missions, including ISAM and lunar activities, until 2030.
The government is also backing new approaches to third-party liability insurance and plans to replace mandatory decommissioning funds for satellite constellations with a monitoring system considered more proportionate to the risks involved.
The changes are designed to reduce barriers for businesses developing emerging space technologies while giving regulators tools to monitor and manage potential risks.
Nick Clitheroe, an actuary at GAD who worked with UKSA on the reforms, said the analysis demonstrated how actuarial expertise could be applied to emerging industries where there is limited historical data and considerable uncertainty.
The work forms part of GAD’s broader role in helping government departments evaluate financial risks and design policies that balance innovation with the protection of public finances.
With investment in the UK space industry expected to increase, the government says the reforms will help create conditions for companies to develop new capabilities while supporting the long-term sustainability of the sector.
