Probation services in England and Wales are under such severe pressure that they may no longer be able to protect the public or reduce reoffending effectively,

according to a stark new report from MPs.

The Public Accounts Committee (PAC) has warned that the Probation Service is being pushed to the brink by staff shortages, rising workloads and declining performance, creating serious risks to public safety and confidence in the justice system.

In its latest inquiry into the efficiency and resilience of probation, the cross-party committee paints a picture of a service struggling to cope with demand despite significant public spending. In 2024–25, HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) spent £1.34 billion on probation, while the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) estimates that reoffending by adult offenders costs society around £20.9 billion every year.

Recalls at record highs

One of the most alarming trends highlighted in the report is the sharp rise in prisoners being recalled to custody. By the end of March 2025, the recall population stood at 13,583 — around 15% of the total prison population — representing a 49% increase since June 2021.

The PAC links this surge to declining probation performance since the service was brought back under full public control in 2021. Last year, probation met just seven of its 27 performance targets, compared with around half just three years earlier. Reoffending rates have also risen over the same period.

Doubts over reform plans

HMPPS has launched a reform programme, ‘Our Future Probation Service’, in an attempt to reverse the decline. However, MPs say the initiative is unlikely to be enough on its own.

The committee raises serious concerns about the MoJ’s ability to deliver the digital changes underpinning the reforms, citing its poor track record on major technology programmes. Crucially, decisions have yet to be taken on reducing levels of supervision for some offenders — choices the PAC says could have significant consequences for public safety.

MPs are calling on the MoJ and HMPPS to set clear thresholds for the level of risk they are prepared to accept, so that operational pressures do not quietly translate into increased danger for the public.

Reduced supervision, more tagging

Evidence to the inquiry suggested that people assessed as “low risk” often still need meaningful support to avoid reoffending. Yet planned changes to probation would reduce supervision for these offenders while relying more heavily on electronic monitoring.

The PAC notes that electronic monitoring is already facing serious performance issues, including delays by contractor Serco in fitting tags. MPs are demanding clearer information on how the service is performing and how private and voluntary sector organisations are expected to fill the gap left by reduced face-to-face supervision.

Staff under extreme strain

Staffing pressures lie at the heart of the crisis. The vacancy rate for probation officers has climbed from 14% in 2021 to 21% in 2025. Officers are estimated to have been working at an average of 118% capacity for several years, with evidence suggesting the real figure may be even higher.

The inquiry heard that probation’s workplace culture is characterised by “emotional strain” and “trauma”, raising concerns about burnout, retention and long-term resilience.

MPs say they are not convinced that HMPPS truly understands how many staff are needed to restore acceptable performance levels. The report calls for clear timelines showing when workloads will fall to safe and sustainable levels.

Falling standards in risk assessment

Perhaps most worrying, the PAC found a sharp decline in the quality of risk assessments. In 2024, practitioners adequately assessed the risk of harm in just 28% of cases, down from 60% in 2018–19.

The committee is urging the MoJ to set out a clear plan and timetable for improving performance against these critical measures, warning that failure to act could further undermine public protection.

The report concludes that without urgent, credible action to address staffing, supervision and accountability, the Probation Service risks becoming overstretched to the point where it can no longer fulfil its core purpose: keeping the public safe and reducing reoffending.

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Chair of the Public Accounts Committee, said: “The probation service in England and Wales is failing. The endpoint of this failure is demonstrated by our report, which shows the number of prisoners recalled to prison is at an all-time high.

"It was deeply alarming to hear of probation staff working under immense pressure in a seemingly toxic environment, in a culture built on emotional strain and trauma. This not only raises concerns about the toll the overall system is taking on their mental health but the impact it is having on their ability to perform their duties. The public’s safety relies on them doing so.

“Unfortunately, the landscape for probation is not going to become more forgiving for a service which has slipped into decline in recent years, as plans to free up capacity, including with early release schemes, in other parts of the crisis-ridden justice system are likely to increase demand.

"Well-run probation is a must-have, helping those who have served their time find their place back in society. HMPPS accepts that the current picture is unsustainable, but its own planned changes could cause further disruption and place more pressure on overstretched staff. The probation service is already teetering on the brink. Government’s immediate goal must be to avoid making matters worse.” Photo by parliament.uk.