Kazakh voters went to the polls on Sunday in a snap parliamentary election widely expected to further consolidate President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s influence over the political system of
the resource-rich Central Asian state.
The election follows the adoption of a new constitution earlier this year that fundamentally changes the structure of parliament, replacing the existing two-chamber legislature with a single parliamentary body. The constitutional changes have also opened the way for Tokayev, who has served as president since 2019, to potentially seek another seven-year term.
Kazakhstan’s Supreme Court ruled last month that the new constitutional framework does not prevent Tokayev from standing for another presidential term. The president, however, has so far stopped short of confirming whether he intends to seek re-election.
Speaking to reporters after voting in the capital, Astana, Tokayev said it was too early to discuss his political plans for the next presidential race.
The parliamentary contest is nevertheless expected to reinforce the dominance of forces aligned with the president. Opinion polls have indicated strong support for Adilet, a pro-government political party established only months ago. The party has effectively inherited much of the political infrastructure of Amanat, the long-standing ruling party that dominated Kazakhstan’s political landscape for decades before dissolving itself into the new organization.
A number of opposition parties are also participating in the election, although political analysts generally regard them as operating within a system that remains closely aligned with Tokayev. The limited space for genuinely independent political forces has raised questions about the extent of competition and the ability of the new parliament to provide a meaningful institutional counterweight to the presidency.
The election marks another stage in the political transformation that followed mass unrest in Kazakhstan in January 2022. The violence, which began with protests over fuel prices before spreading across the country, represented the most serious challenge to the political establishment since independence from the Soviet Union.
Tokayev subsequently portrayed the unrest as an attempted coup involving elements connected to former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s first president and the country’s dominant political figure for nearly three decades.
Tokayev had originally been selected as Nazarbayev’s successor when he became president in 2019. The relationship between the two men deteriorated significantly after the 2022 crisis, after which Tokayev moved to dismantle much of the political influence associated with the former president and his family.
The latest constitutional reforms are therefore being viewed as part of a broader restructuring of Kazakhstan’s political system under Tokayev. Supporters argue that the changes are intended to modernize state institutions and simplify the legislative process, while critics see them as further concentrating authority in the presidency.
The outcome of Sunday’s vote is unlikely to alter that balance dramatically. Instead, the election is expected to provide the newly structured parliament with a mandate while strengthening the political position of a president who has increasingly consolidated control since the 2022 unrest.
Kazakhstan, a major exporter of oil, uranium and other strategic minerals, occupies an important position between Russia, China and Europe. Its political stability and foreign-policy direction therefore carry significance well beyond its borders, particularly as the government seeks to maintain close economic ties with Russia and China while expanding relations with the European Union and other Western partners. Photo by Ninaras, Wikimedia commons.
