Britain’s jobs market is showing little sign of breaking out of its current slowdown, with employers continuing to hold back on recruitment while avoiding a sharp rise in redundancies,
according to new research from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).
The latest survey points to a labour market increasingly defined by what the CIPD calls a “low-hire, low-fire” environment — companies are reluctant to take on new staff, but are not yet cutting jobs on a large scale either.
The findings come as investors and policymakers await official labour-market figures, with the data expected to underline the weakness of the UK employment picture. The Bank of England is closely monitoring developments as it weighs its next interest-rate decision, with borrowing costs having remained unchanged since December 2025.
The CIPD’s net employment balance — the difference between employers expecting staffing levels to rise and those anticipating a fall — remained at +9. That leaves the measure close to its weakest level outside the Covid-19 pandemic.
Private-sector recruitment intentions were similarly subdued, standing at +11, matching the lowest reading recorded outside the pandemic. Just 57% of private-sector employers said they expected to recruit over the next three months, also tying the post-pandemic record low.
Yet the picture is not one of widespread job destruction. Redundancy expectations have remained broadly stable, suggesting businesses are choosing to postpone expansion rather than embark on major workforce reductions.
The cautious approach is also being reflected in pay. Median expectations for salary increases remained at 3%, unchanged for more than two years, pointing to a prolonged period of restrained wage growth.
Recruitment difficulties have not disappeared, however. Around 31% of employers reported having vacancies that were difficult to fill, while 14% expect significant recruitment challenges over the coming six months.
The CIPD said the government should focus on reducing the cost of hiring and strengthening support for young people entering the workforce. It argued that measures aimed at making recruitment easier could help businesses move away from the current period of caution.
The survey was based on responses from 2,017 employers collected between 24 June and 24 July, offering a snapshot of business sentiment ahead of the latest official employment figures.
Taken together, the findings suggest Britain’s labour market is neither collapsing nor recovering strongly. Instead, employers appear to be keeping their workforces broadly intact while remaining reluctant to commit to significant new hiring — a cautious equilibrium that could become increasingly important for the Bank of England as it assesses the direction of the wider economy. Photo by Phil Whitehouse, Wikimedia commons.
