US President Donald Trump is unlikely to receive this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, according to experts who say his confrontation with Iran and increasingly strained relationship with
international institutions make the award difficult to envisage. Yet Trump’s role may still influence the deliberations of the five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee, which will announce the 2026 laureate on October 9.
The committee faces an unusual dilemma after last year’s award generated controversy surrounding Trump. In 2025, the prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, despite Trump’s repeated public efforts to secure the honour for himself. Several weeks after receiving the prize, Machado presented her Nobel medal to Trump during a meeting with the US president.
Experts believe the episode could affect how the committee approaches this year’s decision.
Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, said the events surrounding last year’s award could make the committee particularly cautious about choosing a laureate who might subsequently face political pressure from Trump.
One consideration, he said, could be whether the prize would strengthen or weaken the recipient’s position in the face of pressure from the US administration.
The committee could therefore weigh not only the merits of individual candidates but also the potential consequences of the award in an increasingly polarised international environment.
Pope Leo among potential candidates
Among the figures and institutions mentioned by experts is Pope Leo, the first US-born pontiff, whose public interventions have increasingly focused on war, dialogue and humanitarian issues.
The pope has continued to speak out against armed conflict and has advocated negotiations and peaceful solutions to international disputes. He has also addressed migration, humanitarian issues and the social consequences of artificial intelligence.
Trump has sharply criticised Pope Leo after the pontiff condemned the US military campaign against Iran, at one point describing him as “weak”.
Karim Haggag, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said the pope’s influence extends beyond his role as head of the Catholic Church.
Haggag described Leo as an increasingly prominent voice on international issues, suggesting that his advocacy for dialogue, peace and humanitarian principles could form part of the case for a Nobel award.
Another potential candidate discussed by experts is Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories. Albanese has faced strong criticism from both the United States and Israel over her statements concerning Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and its policies in the occupied West Bank.
The International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice have also been cited as possible recipients.
The committee could choose a less controversial candidate
The developments of the past year do not necessarily mean that the committee will choose a figure directly associated with opposition to Trump's policies.
The opposite approach is also possible: the Nobel Committee could select a comparatively non-confrontational recipient in an effort to avoid escalating political tensions.
Among the candidates that could fit such an approach are Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a network of community-based organisations providing humanitarian assistance during the country’s civil war, and Save the Children, which has worked with children affected by armed conflicts around the world.
At the same time, some observers believe the international circumstances could encourage the committee to make a more explicit statement about the principles underpinning the Nobel Peace Prize.
Historian Oeivind Stenersen, who has written extensively about the award, said the committee was facing pressure to respond to what he described as challenges to the international system.
In his view, the current international climate could favour a prize highlighting liberal democracy, international law and human rights.
An award to the International Criminal Court would carry particular significance as the institution faces pressure from Washington. The US administration has been preparing additional sanctions against the court, according to reports. Honouring the International Court of Justice, meanwhile, could underline the importance of international law and peaceful mechanisms for resolving disputes between states.
Trump has received several nominations
Trump has nevertheless received Nobel Peace Prize nominations from foreign political leaders, including the leaders of Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan.
Gjerloew said, however, that Trump's prospects of receiving the award appeared limited.
Trump has repeatedly expressed frustration at not receiving the prize and has publicly criticised Norway over the decision. His campaign for the award has also become an unusual feature of the Nobel process, given that the committee traditionally makes its decisions independently of political lobbying.
His influence on this year's prize may therefore be less about whether he receives the award himself and more about the political environment in which the committee makes its choice.
Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa, a Filipino-American journalist, said Trump's efforts to influence the process had alarmed her.
Speaking in Oslo in September, Ressa argued that international principles and established standards should not simply be overridden by political power.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee is scheduled to announce the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize on October 9. Photo by Gage Skidmore, Wikimedia commons.
