Poland has deployed 40,000 troops to its eastern frontier as tensions with Russia and Belarus spike ahead of massive joint military drills known as Zapad 2025.
The move follows a series of Russian drones breaching Polish airspace earlier this week — an incident that Warsaw says brought Europe closer to open conflict than at any point since World War II.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk described the upcoming exercises as “very aggressive” and announced the closure of the border with Belarus in response. “This situation brings us all closer to open conflict,” Tusk said, calling it the most dangerous moment for Europe in decades.
NATO on edge
The Kremlin’s Zapad drills — which translate to “West” — are held roughly every four years. Officially defensive in nature, they simulate scenarios like repelling airstrikes or sabotage. But Western officials warn that they often serve as cover for something more sinister.
The last major round of drills, Zapad 2021, ended up being far larger than Moscow admitted at the time — and helped pave the way for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine months later.
This year’s maneuvers, running from Friday through September 16, are expected to bring tens of thousands of Russian and Belarusian soldiers right up to NATO’s borders. Some scenarios could involve testing nuclear-capable missile systems, including the new Oreshnik weapon.
Germany’s defense chief, Carsten Breuer, said NATO will remain “on our guard,” while NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned that Russia’s rapid rearmament, combined with tensions in Asia, risks escalating into a global conflict.
Drone intrusion raises alarm
Poland is still reeling from the overnight intrusion of 19 Russian drones between Tuesday and Wednesday. At least three were shot down, but one struck a Polish home, causing significant damage.
Warsaw quickly invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which allows any member to request urgent consultations when its security is threatened. It was the eighth time in NATO’s history that Poland has triggered the clause.
The UN Security Council will also meet at Poland’s request to discuss the incident.
Moscow has denied responsibility, claiming its drones were targeting sites in western Ukraine and suggesting they may have drifted off course. Polish officials have dismissed that explanation as implausible, accusing Russia of deliberate provocation.
A mirror of the past
Military analysts say the parallels with 2021 are unsettling. Satellite imagery has already spotted new construction at a former Soviet nuclear site in Belarus — possibly linked to Russia’s latest missile systems.
“I do think it could serve as a cover,” said Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Lance Landrum, a former senior NATO commander. He noted that studying these drills will provide a crucial window into Russia’s current capabilities after more than three years of war in Ukraine.
West responds with its own drills
NATO is not sitting idle. Its own large-scale exercise, Iron Defender 25, began on September 1. Around 30,000 allied troops and 600 pieces of military hardware are taking part in maneuvers across the Baltic region.
According to Poland’s Ministry of Defence, the drills are designed to test NATO’s ability to “deter and effectively defend the territory of Poland.”
As both sides prepare for simultaneous shows of force, many fear Europe is entering its most dangerous moment since the Cold War. Photo by Piotr Włodarczyk from London, UK, Wikimedia commons.