France is heading into a storm that could shake Emmanuel Macron’s presidency to its core. His prime minister, François Bayrou, has issued a stark warning: if lawmakers reject his austerity
budget, the country could face a financial meltdown similar to the one that toppled Liz Truss in the UK.
Speaking ahead of a crucial September 8 confidence vote, Bayrou admitted the odds are against him. His plan to cut France’s massive deficit by £38 billion has united opposition parties from the far left to the far right. He described the situation as a “boat that is holed and taking water,” warning that without urgent action, borrowing costs could spiral and lenders may turn their backs on France’s £2.85 trillion debt mountain.
The comparison to Truss is deliberate. Bayrou reminded voters of Britain’s crisis just three years ago, when markets panicked over her tax-cutting budget. The chaos drove up borrowing costs, wrecked confidence, and forced her out of office after just six weeks. “Great Britain is a big country, and yet in six weeks the government had to leave,” he said.
The same risk now hangs over France. Insiders in Paris say Bayrou is unlikely to survive the vote – but the real danger is that his fall drags Macron down with him.
Even Macron’s allies are sounding the alarm. Former prime minister Édouard Philippe suggested a parliamentary dissolution may be inevitable, while Republican heavyweight Jean-François Copé bluntly said: “Emmanuel Macron should accept that the French people don’t want him anymore.” Polls appear to back them up: 67% of voters want Macron to resign, and 72% hope Bayrou loses his confidence vote.
At the heart of the backlash is Bayrou’s budget itself. His plan includes scrapping two bank holidays, taxing pensioners, and raising medicine costs by up to £43 a year. Even MPs in his own centrist bloc have branded the move “suicidal.”
Macron isn’t helping his case. While Bayrou has been trying to sell his plan, critics note the president was spotted surfing on holiday just two weeks ago. Bayrou himself admitted he couldn’t start negotiations earlier because “they were all on holiday.”
If Bayrou falls, Macron will face a brutal choice in a fractured parliament. Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu is being floated as a possible replacement, while some suggest a shift back to the center-left under Bernard Cazeneuve. Macron could also gamble on another snap election – though polls suggest it would only produce another deadlock, or worse, deliver Marine Le Pen’s National Rally a shock majority.
Meanwhile, anger on the streets is growing. A new protest movement under the slogan “let’s block everything” is gathering steam, supported by 63% of the public according to polls. It’s being pushed by both unions and grassroots activists, echoing the “Yellow Vest” uprising that rocked France in 2018. Farmers, workers, and ordinary citizens are already planning nationwide disruption.
For Macron, who cannot run again in 2027 but insists on staying until the end of his term, the stakes couldn’t be higher. With soaring debt, collapsing confidence, and protests on the horizon, many warn France could be heading for its own Liz Truss moment – one that could cut short his presidency in humiliation. Photo by © European Union, 2025, Wikimedia commons.