Support for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government is faltering in one of the party’s traditional heartlands, where a looming by-election in east Manchester is exposing deep
fractures in Labour’s coalition and opening the door to challengers on both the left and right.
Voters in the newly merged Gorton and Denton constituency will head to the polls later this month to elect a new MP, after Labour’s Andrew Gwynne announced he would step down. For Labour, the timing could hardly be worse.
The seat has been a Labour fortress for generations. Gorton has sent Labour MPs to Westminster for nearly a century, while Denton has done so since the end of the Second World War. As recently as July 2024, Labour cruised to victory here as part of its national landslide, taking just over half of the vote.
This time, the race looks anything but comfortable.
Labour squeezed from both sides
On the ground, Labour is being pulled apart by two very different voter rebellions. In the inner suburbs closer to Manchester city centre, younger and more diverse voters are drifting towards the Green Party. Further east, in Denton, older white working-class voters are increasingly drawn to the populist appeal of Reform UK.
“I’ve always voted Labour,” said Dave Ward, a 59-year-old retired firefighter in Denton. “But now I’m giving Reform a chance. Labour have let us down. It’s promises after promises, then U-turns.”
The constituency includes some of the most deprived neighbourhoods in Manchester, a city that often rivals Birmingham for the title of England’s second city. That economic pressure has sharpened frustration with the government’s record.
For critics, this three-way contest reflects everything they believe has gone wrong for Starmer’s administration: abandoned pledges, sliding poll numbers, and lingering controversy over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. Mandelson has denied allegations that he once leaked government information to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
An opinion poll published last week by Omnisis put the Greens narrowly ahead of Reform, with Labour close behind — a result broadly in line with bookmaker odds.
The political uncertainty is also being watched closely by investors. British government bonds have wobbled at points this year amid speculation about Starmer’s leadership, with some investors wary that any change at the top of Labour could mean higher public borrowing.
Greens sense an opening
For many voters on the left, disappointment with Labour has translated into enthusiasm for the Greens, now led by Zack Polanski.
In Levenshulme, where there is a large Muslim population, Green posters are a common sight. “I’ll be voting Green this time,” said Josie, a 37-year-old teacher and former Labour member. She cited Labour’s stance on the war in Gaza and unease over Mandelson’s role as reasons for switching.
Labour’s decision to block Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from standing in the by-election has also angered some loyalists. Party officials said allowing Burnham to run could have triggered a costly mayoral contest, but critics argue the move was designed to sideline a potential rival.
Sue Ashton, a 75-year-old lifelong Labour voter in Gorton, said the decision had backfired. “Starmer threw Labour under the bus,” she said. “I’m only voting Labour to keep Reform out. Otherwise, I’d have gone Green.”
At the launch of the Green Party’s Gorton campaign hub, around 90 canvassers gathered to cheer candidate Hannah Spencer, a local councillor and plumber. “People are ready for change,” she said. “This is between us and Reform now.”
Reform eyes a breakthrough
Nationally, Labour’s most dangerous opponent remains Reform UK, led by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, which has been steadily gaining ground among disillusioned voters.
In Gorton and Denton, that rise has turned a once-safe Labour seat into one of the most closely watched contests in the country — and a potential early warning sign for a government still less than a year into power. Photo by Oldelpaso, Wikimedia commons.