Today, the Government published the Low Pay Commission’s (LPC) official remit for setting the National Minimum Wage (NMW) and National Living Wage (NLW) rates that will apply from

April 2026.

Read the 2025 remit

The Government has reaffirmed its commitment to ensuring the NLW remains at least two-thirds of UK median earnings for eligible workers. This forms a key part of the Government’s Growth Mission to raise living standards. The LPC has been asked to consider not only earnings data but also factors like the cost of living, inflation forecasts for 2026-2027, business competitiveness, labour market impacts, and wider economic conditions.

While the two-thirds median earnings benchmark remains central, the remit emphasizes that LPC recommendations are not purely formula-driven. Instead, the LPC must balance various economic factors to deliver outcomes that benefit both workers and businesses.

Updated NLW estimates

Based on the latest data, the LPC’s updated central estimate for the NLW in April 2026 is £12.71, representing a 4.1% increase. However, due to uncertainties in forecasting, the LPC has set a projected range of £12.55 to £12.86.

This marks an increase from the estimates published in May, which had a central figure of £12.65 (3.6% increase) and a range of £12.50 to £12.80. The upward revision is due to stronger-than-expected wage growth so far this year, which has also led to higher wage growth forecasts for 2025.

If wage growth continues to exceed forecasts, the NLW estimate could rise further. The current projections are based on assumptions that:

- Wage growth in May 2025 was 5.1% year-on-year.

- Wage growth for Q4 2025 is forecast at 3.9%.

- Wage growth for Q4 2026 is forecast at 3%.

Next steps

These figures are indicative and not final. The LPC will consider broader economic conditions before making its final recommendations. The Commission will submit its advice to the Government by the end of October 2025, ahead of the new rates coming into effect in April 2026.