A critical decision looms for the EU-27 heads of state and government at their December meeting in Brussels: whether to initiate accession negotiations with Ukraine and

Moldova. Simultaneously, they must address the Western Balkan countries that have long aspired to join the European Union and may be left behind if Kyiv and Chisinau take the lead.

While all 27 EU member states agree that enlargement is necessary due to the geopolitical landscape and the Ukraine conflict near the EU's borders, divergent opinions emerge when discussing the approach to this transformative project affecting the EU's economy, society, and politics.

In response, France and Germany commissioned a group of 12 independent political scientists to study the issue. On September 19, Olivier Costa and Daniela Schwarzer, the two rapporteurs, presented their findings in a report titled "Sailing on High Seas" to European affairs ministers. They emphasized that their work is not binding on Paris and Berlin.

According to the experts, collectively known as the "group of 12," the EU is not currently prepared to admit new members, neither institutionally nor in terms of policy. Their report suggests reforming the EU before or concurrently with enlargement, aligning with the positions of France and Germany.

French junior minister for Europe, Laurence Boone, and her German counterpart, Anna Lührmann, underscored that the report's recommendations do not represent official stances.

President Emmanuel Macron explained that "enlargement without integration" would be a mistake and emphasized the challenges of progressing on crucial issues in a 27-member EU, let alone with 32 or 35 countries.

However, not all EU member states share this perspective. A separate report on enlargement authored by Baltic, Polish, Nordic, and Croatian political scientists advocates against tying new member state admissions to institutional reforms. These countries, typically more supportive of EU expansion than France and Germany, are concerned that the Franco-German discourse could be used as an excuse to stall enlargement once more.