Labour has slumped to its lowest ever level in a YouGov poll, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party now almost neck and neck with the Conservatives, Greens, and
Liberal Democrats.
The latest survey, carried out for The Times, shows just 17% of voters currently back Labour — the same as the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch. Meanwhile, Reform UK continues its rapid rise, taking the top spot with 27%.
The Green Party has also reached a record high of 16%, while the Liberal Democrats are close behind on 15%, underscoring a major shake-up in Britain’s political landscape.
Warning signs for Starmer
The results come just days after Labour suffered a crushing defeat in a Welsh by-election, prompting fresh warnings that Starmer could struggle to revive the party’s fortunes.
Labour is now being squeezed from both sides — losing right-leaning voters to Reform and younger, progressive voters to the Greens.
For the first time in YouGov’s polling history, Labour’s numbers have dropped this low. Among 18- to 24-year-olds, support for the Greens has skyrocketed, with 40% now saying they would vote for Zack Polanski’s party. Labour trails far behind at 21%, and the Lib Dems follow with 13%.
Among older voters — those 65 and over — Reform UK now leads the pack.
Historic loss in Wales
Last week’s Caerphilly by-election was another blow, where Labour finished a distant third with just 11% of the vote — behind both Reform and Plaid Cymru, who won the seat.
It was a symbolic loss: Labour hadn’t been beaten in the former mining town for more than a century.
A visibly frustrated Starmer called the result “deeply disappointing,” admitting the party “clearly needs to do much more.”
Tough year ahead
Political analysts say the coming year could be critical. With local elections and Scottish and Welsh parliamentary contests on the horizon, many see these as a key test of how Labour is performing in government — and of Starmer’s ability to deliver on his promises.
The Mainstream group, linked to Andy Burnham, warned this week that Labour faces “wipeout in Wales next May without a major reset.” They urged Starmer to “reject the hyper-factional culture that concentrates power at the top of the party.”
Meanwhile, Ipsos pollster Keiran Pedley told The Independent it’s “hard to see how Labour will turn things around” from here. Photo by Rwendland, Wikimedia commons.