In a notable shift of strategy, Humza Yousaf, Scotland's first minister, has expressed his readiness to welcome an independence referendum at the earliest opportunity, indicating a change in his
preferred approach. Yousaf now asserts that winning the majority of Scottish seats, a threshold of 29 seats in a general election, would grant the necessary mandate to initiate negotiations for an independence referendum. This marks a departure from his previous stance, where he proposed that the Scottish National Party (SNP) would have the mandate with merely securing the most seats.
This change in approach has come to the fore as the SNP's annual conference kicks off in Aberdeen, and it is seen as a response to mounting pressure within the party to revise its strategy. Party insiders believe that securing a majority of seats in a general election would offer a stronger mandate for independence discussions. The actual number required could be lower than 29 if other parties secure seats.
In a recent interview with the BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, Yousaf emphasized the repeated denial of "mandate after mandate" for an independence vote by successive Conservative governments. He anticipates the next crucial test of this proposition to occur in the forthcoming general election, which is expected to take place next year. Should the SNP win the majority of seats, it would grant the Scottish government the authority to engage in negotiations with the UK government on how to enact the democratic mandate, including the possibility of a referendum.
Yousaf had previously focused on building "sustained" support for independence, emphasizing the need for 50% plus one to back the cause. He even stated that he would hold a referendum "tomorrow" if necessary, underscoring the party's eagerness for it. He challenged Westminster parties to "bring it on" and assured that independence would become a reality sooner rather than later.
The SNP conference, currently underway, is heavily dominated by discussions of the independence strategy, and party leadership appears open to accommodating the wishes of its members. The shift from winning "most" seats to securing a "majority" of seats, with a higher threshold of at least 29 seats, reflects a willingness to establish a more robust democratic mandate, even in the face of expectations that the SNP may lose seats.
Support for independence in Scotland has been hovering at around 48% since the Supreme Court ruling that the Scottish Parliament cannot legislate for an independence referendum without the UK government's consent. The upcoming reduction in Scotland's seats in the UK Parliament to 57, as recommended by a Westminster boundary review, lowers the majority requirement from 30 to 29 seats.
Humza Yousaf's proposal to leverage the next general election for independence has garnered support from SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn. Additionally, SNP MP Joanna Cherry has introduced an amendment suggesting that independence negotiations with the UK government should involve a constitutional convention comprising MPs elected from Scotland, MSPs, and representatives from civic Scotland. This amendment has received the backing of the leadership.
The SNP faces criticism on various fronts, including concerns over the NHS, the attainment gap, and the highest drug death rates in Europe. Just days before the conference, SNP MP Lisa Cameron defected to the Conservative Party, citing a "toxic" culture within the SNP's Westminster group.
This shift in independence strategy comes amid several challenges and controversies for the SNP, including legal investigations into the party's finances, losses in recent by-elections, and internal divisions regarding the power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens. Photo by Scottish Government, Wikimedia commons.