New modeling indicates that Labour is poised for a landslide victory reminiscent of 1997, with the Conservative Party facing the prospect of losing all the red wall seats it secured in the previous
election.
The analysis suggests that the Tories may also lose more than 20 constituencies in their traditional southern strongholds, resulting in a historically low number of seats. Notable figures, including Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden, Defense Secretary Grant Shapps, and leadership contender Penny Mordaunt, are among the Cabinet ministers who could face defeat. Unless Chancellor Rishi Sunak can narrow Labour's lead in the polls, up to 12 cabinet ministers may lose their seats.
According to the model, which accounts for the new electoral boundaries that will be used in the next election, Labour is projected to win 420 seats, securing a commanding majority of 190 seats. The Tories are expected to secure just 149 seats, while the Liberal Democrats may win 23 seats. These results closely resemble the 1997 landslide victory, where Tony Blair's Labour party secured a majority of 179 with 418 seats. The analysis also highlights that voters continue to prioritize concerns about the cost of living and the state of the NHS.
This extensive study, conducted by the Survation polling company and commissioned by the 38 Degrees campaign group, involved over 11,000 voters. The analysis utilized a modeling technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) to produce constituency-level findings, successfully predicting swings in the 2017 election.
While the average estimate suggests a 190-seat majority for Labour, the modeling, based on polling conducted just before the Tory conference last week, indicates a potential range of 402 to 437 seats for Labour and 132 to 169 seats for the Tories. This suggests that Labour could secure a majority ranging from 154 to 224 seats.
The analysis found that all 44 red wall seats previously won by the Tories are predicted to return to the Labour party. Additionally, 22 so-called blue wall seats, defined as those held by the Tories in 2019 with a majority of Remain voters and a higher-than-average number of graduates, are also expected to be lost by the Conservatives.
The findings are likely to stir controversy within both political parties. While many Labour insiders expect a narrowing of the polls as the election approaches, senior figures in Sunak's team believe they can target Labour leader Keir Starmer, whom they perceive as not having gained public popularity.
Despite Sunak's efforts to shift focus towards banning smoking, reforming A-levels, and abandoning the northern leg of HS2, the analysis indicates that voters remain predominantly concerned with the cost of living and the state of the NHS. In every constituency, these issues ranked as the top priorities for voters. Across the country, a significant portion described themselves as "getting by, but making cutbacks," with 8% identifying as "financially desperate." A considerable 42% reported difficulties in securing a GP appointment within the past six months.
The analysis also highlights significant leads for Labour in red wall seats, with predicted large majorities in previously Conservative strongholds such as Blyth Valley, Hartlepool, and Bassetlaw. In these constituencies, the cost of living and financial concerns were prevalent among voters.
Matthew McGregor, chief executive of 38 Degrees, cautioned that voters were demanding change and urged Labour not to be overly cautious. He stressed that addressing the cost of living and NHS crises would be crucial for all political parties, as unconvincing or distracted responses to these issues could lead to electoral losses.
The results make it increasingly unlikely that Sunak and his team will opt for a spring election. Figures close to the Prime Minister reportedly oppose a May election, despite some MPs believing it may be in the party's interest to go to the polls earlier. Within the Labour party, uncertainty remains regarding Keir Starmer's vision for leadership.
Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, noted that red wall seats, vital to the Conservative's Brexit coalition, were all predicted to return to Labour. Additionally, he highlighted that the swing back to Labour was most substantial in areas with the highest proportion of Leave voters, including traditional Conservative strongholds in the south-east and south-west, which were now under threat from the Liberal Democrats and Labour.
The Survation poll included 11,793 respondents surveyed between September 11 and September 25, 2023. Photo by Rwendland, Wikimedia commons.