Sir Keir Starmer is under increasing pressure from MPs and charities as the government prepares to unveil changes to the welfare system this week. Plans to cut spending on health-related

benefits, set to be announced on Tuesday, have sparked concerns that vulnerable people could be disproportionately affected.

A key focus of the reforms is tightening eligibility for Personal Independence Payments (PIP), a vital disability benefit. However, the government has dropped earlier proposals for a one-year freeze on PIP payments after facing backlash from MPs. While ministers argue that reforms are necessary, there is growing unease within the Labour Party, extending beyond Starmer’s usual critics.

Concerns over PIP changes

Currently, more than 3.6 million people claim PIP, a benefit designed to help those with disabilities and long-term health conditions cover additional living costs, such as mobility aids and transportation. Initial reports suggested the government considered withholding PIP increases in line with inflation for a year, but this idea was met with fierce resistance, even from typically loyal Labour MPs.

Some MPs were invited to Downing Street for briefings last week to discuss the government’s approach. Following a private Labour meeting, one MP told the BBC that freezing PIP payments would be “unforgivable,” emphasizing that people with complex disabilities must be supported as part of the social contract. Another MP, usually a strong backer of the prime minister, expressed frustration over penalizing the most vulnerable, saying:

"Most of us broadly agree that there are people who could work but don’t. We support efforts to encourage employment. But punishing those with severe disabilities is unacceptable."

Government response and divisions

Backbenchers have voiced frustration over poor communication from ministers. However, Treasury Minister Emma Reynolds urged Labour MPs to reserve judgment until the official announcement, saying:

"Some colleagues are jumping to conclusions before hearing the full details. The severely disabled and most vulnerable will always be supported, and there will always be a safety net."

Some Labour factions, such as the Get Britain Working group, support the government’s stance, arguing there is a "moral duty" to assist long-term sick and disabled individuals in finding employment where possible.

Budget Pressures and Welfare Costs

The timing of these welfare reforms coincides with the upcoming Spring Statement on 26 March. Initially, this was expected to be a routine update, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledging economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). However, the OBR has since warned that the £9.9 billion fiscal buffer Labour had in October has been eroded by rising government borrowing costs, necessitating spending cuts.

Some Labour MPs and ministers believe the government should consider alternative solutions, such as adjusting borrowing rules or increasing taxes, rather than imposing severe welfare cuts. Veteran Labour MP Diane Abbott has echoed calls for higher taxation on wealth, while Reeves’ allies argue that such measures could unsettle financial markets and drive borrowing costs even higher.

The scale of the financial challenge is significant. Total spending on health and disability benefits is projected to rise from £64.7 billion in 2023-24 to £100.7 billion by 2029-30, with working-age welfare costs making up the largest share. PIP alone is expected to nearly double to £34 billion by 2029-30. Since the pandemic, the number of people receiving disability benefits has surged by 37%, with nearly 4 million individuals—around 10% of the working-age population—now claiming at least one form of disability support.

Mental health and overdiagnosis concerns

During an interview on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, Health Secretary Wes Streeting acknowledged concerns about the overdiagnosis of mental health conditions, stating:

"Mental wellbeing and illness exist on a spectrum. While overdiagnosis is a concern, too many people are being written off."

His comments prompted mental health charity Mind to caution against stigmatizing people with mental health conditions through policy language.

Political reactions and public concerns

Shadow Education Secretary Laura Trott accused the government of being "divided and unclear" on welfare reform. While the Conservatives broadly support reform, Trott said her party lacks clarity on the specific plans.

Meanwhile, the Scottish National Party (SNP) has condemned the proposed cuts, with Westminster leader Stephen Flynn criticizing Labour for adopting what he called "Tory austerity rules" on public spending.

Dame Clare Moriarty, chief executive of Citizens Advice, argued that the government was "taking the quick and easy route" by cutting support instead of properly investing in programs that help people into work.

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham acknowledged the need for reform but urged caution, warning:

"Cutting support for disabled people who are unable to work would trap too many in poverty."

With factions within Labour clashing over the issue, the coming weeks may test Starmer’s ability to manage internal dissent while addressing the challenge of rising welfare costs. Photo by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street / Open Government Licence v3.0.