“Our research suggests that this election could be nothing short of electoral extinction for the Conservative Party,” stated Chris Hopkins, political research
director at Savanta.
Three British opinion polls released late on Saturday depict a bleak scenario for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party, with one pollster warning of potential “electoral extinction” in the upcoming election on July 4.
The polls come midway through the election campaign, following a week where both the Conservatives and Labour unveiled their manifestos, and just before voters start receiving postal ballots.
Sunak surprised many in his party by calling an early election on May 22, contrary to expectations that he would delay to allow more recovery time from the highest inflation in 40 years.
Market research company Savanta found 46 percent support for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, an increase of 2 points from the previous poll five days earlier, while support for the Conservatives dropped by 4 points to 21 percent. This poll, conducted from June 12 to June 14, was published by the Sunday Telegraph.
Labour’s 25-point lead is the largest since the tenure of Sunak’s predecessor, Liz Truss, whose tax cut plans triggered a sell-off of British government bonds, rising interest rates, and a Bank of England intervention.
“Our research suggests that this election could be nothing short of electoral extinction for the Conservative Party,” warned Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta.
A separate Survation poll, published by the Sunday Times, predicted the Conservatives might secure only 72 seats in the 650-member House of Commons — their lowest in nearly 200 years — while Labour could win 456 seats. This poll was conducted from May 31 to June 13.
In percentage terms, the Survation poll showed Labour at 40 percent and the Conservatives at 24 percent, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, a right-wing challenger to the Conservatives, at 12 percent.
A third poll by Opinium for Sunday’s Observer, conducted from June 12 to June 14, also showed Labour at 40 percent, the Conservatives at 23 percent, and Reform at 14 percent, indicating that the two major parties are losing ground to smaller rivals. Photo by NCVO London, Wikimedia commons.