Average UK house prices nudged up slightly this month, reaching £370,257, but they’re still a fraction lower than they were a year ago — the first annual drop since early 2024, according

to Rightmove.

The small decline reflects months of sellers trimming prices over the summer to stay competitive in a crowded market. Normally, September brings a bigger bounce as families return from holidays and the market picks up, but this year’s 0.4% rise fell short of the usual 0.6%.

That hasn’t stopped buyers. Sales being agreed are now 4% higher than at the same time last year, helped by the higher number of homes on the market.

But London and the South of England are lagging. Prices in the South West are down 1.3% year-on-year, while the North West is seeing growth of 3.2%. The south’s weaker performance is partly due to sheer volume: the number of homes for sale in the region is up 9% compared with just 2% elsewhere, meaning sellers face stiffer competition. It’s also taking longer to secure buyers in the south — about five extra days on average — while Scotland continues to move at a much faster pace.

Tax jitters add to uncertainty

All of this comes against the backdrop of looming political decisions. With the Autumn Budget scheduled for 26 November, speculation about potential stamp duty changes has created fresh uncertainty — particularly at the higher end of the market.

“Movers want to be confident about their costs,” said Colleen Babcock, a property expert at Rightmove. “Even rumours of changes can make buyers and sellers pause, especially when large sums are at stake.”

If the government goes ahead with plans to adjust stamp duty on properties over £500,000, London would be hit hardest. Almost 60% of sales in the capital fall into that bracket, compared with 22% across the rest of England and just 8% in the North East. On top of that, more than one in ten London homes are valued at £1.5m or more, making them potential targets for a so-called “mansion tax.” Outside the capital, only about 2% of homes sit in that range.

For now, the market is holding up. But sellers in London and the South may need to keep sharpening their pencils as buyers wait to see whether November brings a major tax shake-up.