A new report from the Environment Agency (EA) has revealed that one in four properties in England will be at risk of flooding by 2050 as the impacts of climate change intensify.
The analysis highlights that 6.3 million homes and businesses are currently under threat, with London identified as the most vulnerable region.
The findings show that 4.6 million properties are at risk of surface water flooding caused by heavy rainfall, which poses the greatest danger. In London alone, more than 300,000 homes already face a high risk of flooding from undrained rainwater.
However, the report’s most concerning projection incorporates the effects of a warming climate. It warns that by 2050, 8 million homes and businesses could be at risk of flooding across England.
Increased flood risks across the country
The EA’s assessment categorizes flood risks into three main types: surface water flooding, coastal flooding, and flooding from rivers. Surface water flooding—characterized as having a one in 1,000 chance of occurrence in a given year—currently poses the greatest risk. Improvements in predictive models have contributed to these updated estimates, although the overall threat is also rising.
In particularly severe floods, the report estimates that 184,000 properties could experience floodwaters of at least 30cm—a depth capable of displacing cars and causing significant damage to homes and infrastructure.
Climate change and intensifying flood events
The risks of flooding are being exacerbated by climate change. Although some areas may experience drier conditions, warmer air holds more moisture, leading to increasingly intense rainfall during storms. Between October 2023 and March 2024, the UK experienced an average 20% increase in storm intensity, a worrying trend expected to continue.
The report also warns of growing flood risks from rivers and the sea. Currently, 2.4 million properties are vulnerable to flooding caused by rivers or coastal waters, a slight decrease from 2018 estimates. However, the number of properties classified as “high risk”—with a one in 30 chance of flooding annually—has increased by 88%, reflecting advances in data and modelling.
Coastal flooding and erosion on the rise
Rising sea levels further exacerbate coastal flood risks, with significant long-term implications. By 2050, the EA predicts that 3.1 million properties will face flooding from rivers and the sea. Moreover, by the end of the century, 10,100 homes could be lost to coastal erosion, more than doubling the current estimate of 3,500 properties at risk.
The southeast, northwest, and coastal areas of Yorkshire and the Humber are projected to be among the worst affected, particularly as existing flood defences struggle to cope with more extreme weather and rising seas. Since 1990, average sea levels around the UK have already risen by nearly 20cm, and without significant mitigation, flood-related damages are expected to increase by 25% or more.
Urgent calls for action
Alison Dilworth, a campaigner with Friends of the Earth, described the report as a stark reminder of the dangers posed by the climate crisis:
“This report is yet another warning about the growing threat climate change poses to people, homes, and communities across the country.”
Julie Foley, Director of Flood Risk Strategy at the EA, emphasized the importance of improved data and preparation:
“Providing the nation with the best available information on flood and coastal erosion risk is vital to ensuring that policymakers, practitioners, and communities are ready to adapt to flooding and coastal change.”
The road ahead
As climate change accelerates, the need for proactive flood management strategies has never been clearer. The report underscores the importance of bolstering flood defences, implementing climate adaptation measures, and addressing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate further risks. Photo by John Barker, Wikimedia commons.