According to researchers from the London School of Economics and other universities, Britain's departure from the European Union (EU) has contributed to approximately one-third of
the increase in food bills for UK households since 2019, amounting to around £250 ($316). The country has been grappling with inflation for over a year, driven in part by the highest rate of food price growth since 1977, with food prices surging by over 19% in the past year.
While London and Brussels have an agreement that allows largely tariff-free trade in goods, non-tariff barriers in the form of paperwork have resulted in delays and higher costs for exports and imports. The Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) conducted a study comparing price changes for food products imported from the EU with those sourced from other regions. Prior to Brexit, these products exhibited similar price trends, but after Brexit, there was a relative increase in prices for products more reliant on EU imports, a trend that has continued into 2023.
The study revealed that between January 2022 and March 2023, food products exposed to Brexit experienced an approximately 3.5-percentage-point higher price increase compared to non-exposed products. When considering the impact on food prices since December 2019, just before the UK formally left the EU, the estimated cost of Brexit for UK households amounts to £6.95 billion ($8.77 billion), equivalent to £250 per household. Between December 2019 and March 2023, UK food prices rose by nearly 25 percentage points, whereas the CEP suggests that, in the absence of Brexit, this figure would have been 8 percentage points (30%) lower.
The study also found that products with high non-tariff barriers, such as meat and cheese imported from the EU, witnessed price increases approximately 10 percentage points higher than similar products not exposed to Brexit since January 2021, when the UK's trade and cooperation agreement with the EU began.
While some politicians have defended Britain's departure from the EU, stating that it has not been a failure, the impact on food prices and overall consumer price inflation has been significant. Official data reveals that UK consumer price inflation reached a more-than 40-year high of 11.1% in October, eventually slowing down to 8.7% in April. Photo by Philafrenzy, Wikimedia commons.