A potential return of Donald Trump to the White House may signal significant changes in global trade, with proposed tariffs raising concerns across international markets. Central to these

worries is Trump’s plan to impose universal tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports, coupled with a steep 60% tariff on goods from China.

This has sparked questions about how such policies would affect economic ties between the US, UK, and EU. Yahoo Finance UK spoke to Symphony CEO Brad Levy to explore the possible consequences for businesses, governments, and consumers.

The stakes for the UK are particularly high, given that the US is its largest single-country trading partner, accounting for 15.4% of exports—worth over £60 billion annually. Key sectors such as automotive, aerospace, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and machinery dominate these exports but face stiff competition from US-based industries.

Levy highlighted the complexities of adapting to new trade dynamics, drawing parallels with Brexit: “It’s not that easy to change accounting standards and move your physical businesses around the world, open offices, set up systems”. 

Relocating production to the US to bypass tariffs may not be feasible for many UK firms due to logistical and financial constraints. This could leave businesses with two unappealing options: absorbing the additional costs, which would erode profit margins, or passing those costs onto consumers, potentially reducing competitiveness.

The broader economic impact could be substantial. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimates that such protectionist measures could reduce UK economic growth by 0.7 to 0.5 percentage points over the first two years. Inflation could rise, potentially triggering higher interest rates.

Political dynamics could further complicate trade relations. A Republican-led US administration may find itself at odds with a Labour-led UK government. However, Levy suggested that the underlying cooperation may be stronger than it appears. Photo by Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, Wikimedia commons.