Your favorite chocolate Easter egg might come with a heftier price tag this year, and climate change is playing a significant role, researchers say.

The majority of chocolate production relies on cocoa beans from West Africa, but a recent spell of humid heatwaves has severely affected crops, leading to a drastic reduction in yields.

Experts highlight that human-induced climate change has amplified the likelihood of such extreme heat events by tenfold. Which?, a consumer advocacy group, discovered that prices of popular Easter eggs have surged by over 50% due to the cocoa shortage caused by the heatwave. Prices have soared to nearly $8,500 (£6,700) per tonne this week.

Cocoa trees are particularly sensitive to climate variations, thriving only within a narrow band of around 20 degrees latitude around the Equator. The bulk of global cocoa production is concentrated in West Africa, with significant imports to the UK, primarily from Ivory Coast and Ghana.

However, severe drought conditions have plagued West Africa since February, with temperatures exceeding 40°C and breaking records in countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana. These extreme temperatures, exacerbated by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, have put immense strain on cocoa crops, leading to weakened yields due to increased evaporation and insufficient moisture.

El Niño, a natural weather pattern in the tropical Pacific, has further compounded the situation. A strong El Niño has been active since last June, exacerbating global temperatures and contributing to extreme weather events, such as droughts.

Ben Clarke, an expert on extreme weather at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College, emphasizes that while El Niño years traditionally pose challenges for farmers, climate change driven by fossil fuel use intensifies these challenges, leading to more frequent and severe extreme weather events.

In addition to drought, West Africa has also faced intense rains, resulting in a fungal infection known as black pod disease, which has rotted cocoa beans on trees. The combination of these extreme weather events has led to a significant increase in cocoa prices, more than tripling since last year and doubling in just the last three months.

Chocolate manufacturers, who typically purchase cocoa beans months in advance, are now grappling with soaring prices, leading to anticipated price increases for consumers.

Farmers in the West African cocoa belt, comprising approximately two million smallholder farmers, are feeling the brunt of these price fluctuations, as cocoa cultivation forms the backbone of their income.

Amber Sawyer, an analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, stresses the need for wealthy countries like the UK to provide financial and technical support to developing nations to help farmers cope with extreme weather events. However, as climate change worsens, she warns that additional support will be imperative to safeguard farmers' livelihoods and ensure a steady supply of cocoa beans. Photo by Tiia Monto, Wikimedia commons.