Thailand's former Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, has been imprisoned following his return to the country after 15 years of exile. However, speculation abounds that he

has struck a deal that could limit his time in jail to a brief period.

Thaksin's arrival in Bangkok coincided with his Pheu Thai party's candidate, Srettha Thavisin, being elected as the next Thai Prime Minister. This outcome solidifies Pheu Thai's alliance with its former military adversaries who had ousted the party in a coup back in 2014.

Thaksin, known as Thailand's most successful elected leader, has long been viewed with apprehension by conservative royalists who have used military interventions and contentious legal cases to weaken his influence. His self-imposed exile in 2009 was prompted by his deposition through a coup two years prior.

While Thaksin had openly expressed his desire to return to Thailand, it was the pending criminal cases against him that had kept him away. However, the telecommunications magnate, who is known for his bold political ambitions, has now returned. Almost immediately, he was sentenced to eight years in prison on charges he contends are politically motivated.

Upon his arrival, Thaksin was greeted by enthusiastic "red shirt" supporters who had gathered to welcome him, although he did not personally address most of them. The sentencing followed his brief appearance at the airport terminal, where he paid respects to a portrait of the king and queen, before being transported to the Supreme Court and subsequently to Bangkok Remand Prison.

It's speculated that Thaksin might seek a royal pardon, with prison authorities confirming that he could submit a petition from jail, a process that typically takes one to two months. Given his age, he will be housed in a wing with specialized medical equipment, and he will undergo a 10-day quarantine, the first half of which will be confined to his room.

The recent election of Srettha, amidst a complex political landscape, underscores the shifts and alliances within Thailand's political scene. Despite Pheu Thai's return to power, its bargaining position had been constrained by the unelected senate, a holdover from the military junta's rule. The senate's role is perceived as protecting the existing status quo, which encompasses monarchy, military, and big business interests.

Thaksin's homecoming and the political coalition supporting Pheu Thai's prime ministerial candidate are viewed by many as interconnected, shaping the nation's political trajectory. Photo by oD photo by Helene C. Stikkel, Wikimedia commons.