Recently released National Archives papers have revealed that Tony Blair’s government was cautioned about a potential surge in immigration from Eastern Europe following the European

Union’s expansion in 2004. Despite these warnings, the Labour administration moved forward with granting unrestricted access to migrants from new EU member states.

The documents, unveiled at the National Archives in Kew, London, highlight concerns raised by senior ministers. Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott and Foreign Secretary Jack Straw both advocated for delaying the decision and implementing controls to manage immigration levels.

In contrast, Home Secretary David Blunkett and others supported the move, citing the need for migrant labor to boost the UK economy’s flexibility and productivity. The Home Office initially predicted a limited impact on immigration following the accession of eight predominantly former Soviet bloc states in May 2004.

However, the files show that immigration numbers quickly exceeded expectations. One official warned of an “elephant trap,” advising ministers to limit the amount of data released to the public to avoid backlash.

Jack Straw later acknowledged that failing to implement transitional controls, as most other EU nations had done, was a “spectacular mistake” with profound consequences. The absence of restrictions was seen as a key factor behind a significant rise in immigration, with net migration exceeding 200,000 annually in the following years. The influx of inexpensive labor from countries like Poland was criticized for undercutting wages and job opportunities for local workers.

The surge in immigration and its perceived economic impact became a contentious political issue. Successive governments struggled to manage the rising numbers, contributing to growing anti-EU sentiment. This ultimately played a significant role in the 2016 Brexit referendum, where the UK voted to leave the European Union.

When Labour announced in 2002 that citizens of the “A8” accession countries would have unrestricted access to the UK job market upon joining the EU in 2004, it was assumed that other member states would adopt similar policies. Instead, Britain’s open-door approach stood in stark contrast, leading to far-reaching and unintended consequences. Photo by Chatham House, Wikimedia commons.