In a heated debate, two property experts have presented opposing views on the future of house prices in the UK. While one expert warns of a significant 35% decline by 2025, the other
remains more optimistic, expecting only a minor dip followed by a rebound.
Rob Dix, co-founder of Property Hub, and Charlie Lamdin, founder of BestAgent, both possess extensive knowledge of the property market. Lamdin predicts that the impact of higher interest rates is just beginning to manifest in the data and foresees a sharp drop of 35% over three years. On the other hand, Dix believes that while prices may experience a small decline in the short term due to decreased buying and selling activity, a lending boom followed by a crash is more likely.
Current data indicates a fall in house prices over the past year, although the magnitude varies among different reports. Nationwide reported a 3.4% annual decrease in May, the largest drop since 2009, while Halifax reported a smaller 1% decline. The uncertainty surrounding actual prices is attributed to the lack of official and visible data, leading to confusion in a changing market.
Regarding the outlook for 2023, Lamdin expects the steepest price falls to occur by the end of the year, with evidence of these declines becoming apparent six to nine months later. Dix's perspective is less definitive, suggesting that certain areas, particularly in the South East, may experience price drops while others remain stable, resulting in a minor nationwide decline.
Looking further ahead to 2024 and 2025, Dix raises the possibility of a general election by January 2025, noting that the incumbent party would aim to avoid job losses and falling house prices. The outcome will depend on various factors, including inflation and the actions of the Bank of England. Lamdin anticipates a continuation of falling prices in 2024, with some stabilization in 2025 due to worsened affordability and potential deflation.
The debate revolves around the influence of interest rates on affordability, with Lamdin emphasizing the relationship between rising rates and decreased purchasing power. He expects the Bank of England base rate to continue rising, reaching 5.5% or even 6% by the end of the year, causing the most significant price falls in 2024.
Ultimately, the future trajectory of house prices remains uncertain, and differing economic factors will play a crucial role in shaping the market.