London schools are facing increasing challenges as demand for school places continues to fall, according to a new report from London Councils.
The report predicts a 3.6% drop in reception pupil numbers across the capital over the next four years, amounting to a loss of 3,195 places—equivalent to around 117 fewer reception classes. A similar trend is expected for secondary schools, with Year 7 enrolments projected to decline by 2.9%, equating to 2,646 fewer places or approximately 100 fewer classes.
For the first time in 2023-24, the number of children in Year 7 has surpassed those in reception, raising concerns about potential school closures in the coming years.
The primary driver of this decline is London’s falling birth rate. Between 2012 and 2022, the capital experienced a 20% decrease in births, translating to 27,490 fewer live births. This trend is largely attributed to the severe lack of affordable family housing, prompting many to reconsider raising children in London.
The shrinking pupil numbers are also impacting school funding, forcing schools to make difficult financial decisions. Reduced budgets may lead to staff cuts, which could significantly affect support for children with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND), making it harder for schools to maintain inclusive education.
In some cases, schools and local authorities have had to consider mergers or closures to adapt to the declining demand.
The report calls for greater powers for local authorities to manage school places, including decision-making over the future use of closed school buildings to meet local needs. It also recommends that local authorities be allowed to oversee in-year admissions for all schools, aiming to reduce wait times for children and simplify the application process for families.
Cllr Ian Edwards, London Councils Executive Member for Children and Young People, said:
“London has many of the best schools in the country, with 96% of all our schools being rated good or outstanding by Ofsted. London boroughs are determined to ensure there continues to be sufficient high quality school places available in each local area, despite this difficult climate.
“London Councils has welcomed many of the measures proposed in the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill that will create a fairer education system for all, but there is further to go. Boroughs will continue to work closely with key education partners in London to mitigate the impact of this drop in demand for school places on school budgets and children’s achievements.” Photo by Mx. Granger, Wikimedia commons.