The number of primary school students in London is projected to decline by 52,000 by 2028, which is twice the national average, according to analysis reported by the
BBC. The Education Policy Institute (EPI) explained on Radio 4's Today programme that while primary school enrollments have been steadily falling, secondary school numbers have increased in most regions of England.
The drop in primary school numbers is attributed to several factors, including declining birth rates, rising housing costs, and the overall cost of living. The most significant decreases are expected in central London boroughs such as Westminster, Southwark, and Camden, where primary school enrollments are projected to drop by more than 10%.
In response, the government has expressed its commitment to repurposing unused classrooms into nurseries to address this shift.
Louis Hodge, associate director of EPI, stated: "Across London, we’re expecting primary school pupil numbers to decrease by another 52,000 by 2028. We’re now seeing this trend extend to other parts of the country, but at a slower pace."
Hodge added that while primary school numbers are falling more dramatically in London than in the rest of England, secondary school enrollments have been on the rise across most local authorities. However, this upward trend is expected to peak and begin to decline within the next five years, especially in London as lower primary enrollments work their way through the education system.
Impact on School Budgets
The falling student numbers could have a direct impact on school budgets, as funding is largely determined by the number of pupils enrolled. "With fewer pupils, school budgets are likely to shrink," Hodge explained. He pointed out that many school costs, such as teacher salaries and building maintenance, remain fixed, which could put added pressure on already stretched budgets.
The decline in birth rates, which began around 2010, has been even more pronounced in London. Rising living costs, particularly in housing and childcare, have made it more difficult for families to stay in the capital or to have children at all.
Families Leaving the Capital
This trend is leading many families to leave London for more affordable areas. Romy Danflous, a mother of two from Peckham, is moving to Norwich due to the high cost of living in the capital. "We're relying on savings to cover daily costs, and even with full-time jobs, we couldn’t keep up with London’s expenses anymore," she said.
Gentrification has also played a role in pushing families out of central London neighborhoods. Kenny Smyth, who has lived on the Rockingham Estate near Elephant and Castle his whole life, noted how quickly his friends and neighbors were displaced. "It was almost overnight that I lost all my friends," Smyth said, attributing the exodus to rising housing prices.
Toby, a parent governor in Southwark, shared his concerns about the lack of provisions for families. "Ten years ago, primary schools in the area were so overcrowded they had to teach kids in corridors. Now, four schools have closed in the past two years."
Challenges for Teachers
In addition to declining student numbers, schools are also struggling to retain teachers due to high living costs. Sir Dan Moynihan, CEO of the Harris Federation, said that the shortage of teachers in London has forced them to recruit educators from overseas. "We now recruit teachers from Jamaica because we can't find enough teachers willing to live and work in central London," Moynihan explained.
Government Response
A spokesperson for the Department for Education emphasized the government’s commitment to improving educational opportunities. "We have increased school funding to nearly £61.8 billion this year to break down barriers and improve the life chances of all children," the spokesperson said. They also highlighted the plan to roll out 3,000 school-based nurseries by converting empty primary school classrooms, aiming to increase childcare options and build capacity in the system. Photo by Mx. Granger, Wikimedia commons.