A study conducted by the Refugee Council suggests that Suella Braverman's Rwanda plan could result in 35,000 small boat migrants being "stuck in limbo" annually if it is not implemented.
Analysis of Home Office data reveals that, even with legal approval today, the government can only deport a small percentage of those arriving on British shores, amounting to just 3.5 percent of the over 100,000 people who have crossed the Channel in small boats since 2018.
The Refugee Council based its assessment on legal provisions outlined in the Illegal Migration Act and Home Office data regarding numbers, nationalities, and asylum applications of small boat arrivals.
The study cautions that the Home Secretary's plans may have unintended consequences.
The current government rules dictate that individuals cannot be removed unless their asylum claims have been considered first.
The UK has return agreements with four countries that have a high volume of asylum seekers, including Iraq, Albania, Vietnam, and Pakistan. These countries are known for having high rates of asylum applications.
However, asylum seekers also arrive in significant numbers from other countries that lack return agreements, such as Iran, Afghanistan, and Syria, which saw 9,652, 6,644, and 4,143 refugees arrive in 2021.
Moreover, there has been an increase in arrivals from other nations, including Turkey, India, and Eritrea.
Due to the lack of progress on the Rwanda deal and the absence of return agreements, migrants from these nations could find themselves trapped in a state of uncertainty.
Fortunately, a reasonable portion of them may eventually secure the right to claim asylum upon their arrival.
The same study predicts that three out of every four migrants arriving in the UK via small boats will be granted asylum. The Refugee Council arrived at this conclusion by comparing the nationalities arriving in 2023 with the current asylum grant rate.
It is anticipated that 74 percent of the 19,441 migrants who crossed the Channel by August this year will receive asylum.
In 2023, the UK has witnessed 24,830 small boat arrivals, a decrease compared to the figures from 2022, when approximately 33,001 had arrived by October 1. Photo by SteveRwanda, Wikimedia commons.